Friday, May 1, 2015

Blake Griffin's historical postseason

The opinion that it's a shame one of the L.A. Clippers or San Antonio Spurs will be headed home after round one of the playoffs is shared throughout the basketball-watching community. They're the victims of the NBA's outdated seeding system that rewards teams for relatively meaningless division championships. Had the playoff teams been seeded in order of actual win-loss record, the Clippers would've faced Portland and the Spurs would've played Memphis. But that's not why we're here.

Win or lose, Blake Griffin is enjoying an individual statistical postseason run unlike any a big man has had in the history of the league. Through the first six games of this series, Griffin is averaging 24.2 points, 13.2 rebounds and 7.0 assists in over 41 minutes per game. No player you'd call a "big man" has ever held these averages throughout a postseason. In fact, only one other player of any size has done it. In the 1963 playoffs, (the 6'5") Oscar Robertson averaged over 31 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists a game. Prettay, prettay good company for Blake, I'd say.

A Clipper loss in Saturday's game seven will likely mean Griffin's play will be largely overlooked, which is a bummer. He was much maligned early in the season with people complaining that he was settling for too many midrange jumpers instead of taking it to the rim, as he's done throughout his career. He didn't look like the same player that had made "the leap" into superstardom the season before. Many expected him to continue to improve, but his regular season numbers decreased across-the-board, save for his assists.

In fact, Griffin's 5.3 assists per game were not only the most by a "big man", but good for 21st-most in the entire NBA. Prior to Chris Paul's 15-assist eruption in game six, Griffin had actually averaged more assists per game than CP3 in this series (7.2 to 6.8). Point Griffin! He's also averaging 1.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game during these playoffs, up from 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks a game during the regular year. He's going all-out, and it shows.

While the complaints about him taking too many jumpers were fair, his evolution as a more well-rounded player is what was overlooked. Two years ago, many believed Griffin's development had stagnated. His stats had seemingly leveled-off, and it didn't look like he was really going to be getting much better. He was a very good player in those days, but incredibly limited compared to the guy we're seeing these days. Take a look at his midrange (15-19 feet from the rim) shot chart from the 12-13 season:


Yuuuuuuck. That's downright garish. His "best" percentage was the 40% he shot from the left baseline, and even then he only took 15 shots there all year, so the sample size is relatively tiny. You'll also probably notice how few shots total there are from this range. He knew he couldn't make them, so he didn't take them too often. On the season, Griffin took 203 shots from 15-19 feet, making a poor 37% of them.

Let's compare that to this past season's chart:


It's not a beautiful work of art or anything, but the improvement on the shots near the top of the key is remarkable, highlighted by the 48.1% mark from the right wing. His overall percentage on shots from 15-19 feet was just over 40% this season, per NBA.com. While that in itself is pretty mediocre, you can still plainly see where he's gotten better and advanced his game.

By virtue of being a mere threat from that distance, Griffin has made himself a far more dangerous cover for opposing defenders. If you commit too hard to preventing his jumper, he'll use his better-than-the-average-big handle and go right around you and probably dunk all your poor help defender. If you lay off him, he'll confidently hit a 13-footer. If you somehow manage to cut-off any shot whatsoever, he'll likely find a wide-open teammate. Again, he's a nightmare to defend.

In this series against the Spurs, Griffin is shooting 46.3%, though just 34.6% from the areas detailed above, per NBA.com. He's taken 26 shots from the 15-19 foot range, which is the second most of any distance, trailing only the 62 shots he's attempted from five feet or less. And when his jumper hasn't been falling, he's been aggressive in taking it to the rim instead.

Blake has never had much of a reputation for being a defensive-minded player, but he's working his tail off on that end in this series. He had four blocked shots in the Clips' game six win, which is something he'd only done twice previously in his entire career (both instances came during the 2011-12 season).

The Clippers' win last night affords them the golden opportunity to host game seven on Saturday. I'll use "golden opportunity" loosely in this instance, though, considering the road team has won four of the six games thus far in this matchup, including each of the last three. Thursday night's win was the biggest in the history of the franchise to this point. Let's hope that they can top it in game seven.

Their reward for potentially winning on Saturday? Game one in Houston on Monday.

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