This can really go both ways. On one hand, the Clippers should still be riding the emotional high that comes with knocking the defending champs out of the playoffs, while the Rockets have just been sitting around, waiting, for nearly a week. L.A. could pick up right where they left off, playing their best basketball of the season, while Houston could be a bit rusty with such a long layoff.
On the other hand, what are the Clippers supposed to do for an encore? We've heard "greatest first-round series of all-time" thrown around a lot regarding that war with the Spurs. Would anyone blame them if they come out tonight looking completely spent? (Yes, but we'll move on). The Rockets surely have used the last six days to rest whatever ails them, and, in theory, should be ready to rock-n-roll in front of their home crowd tonight.
While it seems like many prognosticators may be leaning towards favoring the Clippers in this series, the elephant in the room is the status of Chris Paul. Paul, of course, injured his hamstring early in game seven, only to return and lead LAC to the victory, even hitting the game-winning shot. His status for game one is officially "questionable", with Doc Rivers saying Monday morning that he'll be a game-time decision (UPDATE: Doc says CP3 is out for game one). This doesn't need to be said, but I'll say it anyway, since the whole point of me being here is to say things: If Chris Paul is out, then the Clippers are in a whole mess o' trouble.
These two teams splits the four regular season meetings. Los Angeles took the first two, while Houston won the latter pair. The most recent tilt was a Sunday matinee on March 15th at Staples Center; a game the Rockets won 100-98.
While the Clippers eagerly await the status of Paul, the rest of their roster is expected to be good to go. Houston is without forward Donatas Motiejunas and guard Patrick Beverley, both of whom will miss the remainder of the playoffs. It's tough to really use any of the four regular season matchups as a basis for predicting what will happen in this series, since health was a huge factor.
Rockets center Dwight Howard played exactly zero minutes in any of the games with the Clips this season. Forward Terrence Jones missed the first two games of the series, which were the two that Los Angeles won. Blake Griffin missed the Rockets' win in Houston in late February, while Jamal Crawford missed Houston's aforementioned March victory. There are even a slew of players that appeared in games between these teams this season that aren't on either roster anymore. Nate Robinson, Francisco Garcia, Isaiah Canaan, Tarik Black, Jordan Farmar, Jared Cunningham and Reggie Bullock...to name a few.
But what we do have to go on is video from Houston's five-game series win over Dallas. The Rockets' roster has changed so much throughout the season that this is the first time the Clippers will see them with their near-full complement of regular rotation players. Since they haven't seen him all year, let's start with the problems Dwight Howard presents.
Howard used to be a guy that would demand post-up opportunities on offense, but during the playoffs, he's not been that guy at all. He's committed himself to three things: Protecting the basket, grabbing every rebound in sight, and finishing easy offensive opportunities. In the Dallas series, he did all of those things incredibly well. We'll use some video from game three of that series, a 130-128 Rockets victory, in which Howard scored 13 points, grabbed 26 rebounds and blocked two shots.
Howard is a secondary scorer on this team now, and he does the majority of his damage either off of lobs from teammates or on putback opportunities created by his own offensive rebounds. Tyson Chandler is regarded as an elite defensive center in the league, yet Howard decimated him. DeAndre Jordan is more well-equipped to deal with Howard's springiness (Is that a word? It is now!), but is going to be conceding quite a bit in the strength department.
A high percentage of Houston's offense is predicated out of a high screen-and-roll, which oftentimes will involve Howard setting a screen on the guy defending James Harden. On this play, we see Harden picking Monta Ellis, which forces Howard's man, Tyson Chandler, to switch and guard Harden:
It's certainly worth noting that the Clippers employ a different defensive strategy than that used by the Mavericks. Dallas, like Chicago, will have its bigs hang back closer to the basket off a pick-and-roll. The Clippers' run a high-effort scheme in which bigs hedge screens super aggressively in an attempt to cut-off the ball-handler. If faced with this exact Houston setup we see above, Howard's man (likely DJ) would run straight out to Harden and meet him right at the three-point line, hoping to stop his dribble and possibly trap him near the out-of-bounds line. The Dallas scheme, as you can see, leaves Harden open for a three-pointer, if he wanted it. In this instance, he didn't.
He dribbles down near the free-throw line, immediately drawing the attention of literally every Maverick on the floor. Howard now has Ellis chasing him down into the paint, which is a losing battle for a guy of Ellis' tiny size 100% of the time. Seeing the switch, Dirk Nowitzki and former Clipper spare Al-Farouq Aminu both now have their attention focused on Harden and Howard. Even Devin Harris, at the top of the screen, is cheating in a bit off of Jason Terry. This leaves Terry open near the left corner (Terry hit a sizzling 54% of left corner threes this year, per NBA.com) and Trevor Ariza wide open in the right corner (42% from this corner this year, an excellent percentage). Josh Smith, "guarded" by Nowitzki, is sneaking baseline, where Harden may be able to whip a quick pass for a would-be easy bucket:
Instead of using any of these options, Harden takes the open midrange jumper over Chandler. While this is still deadly, it's likely the lowest-percentage opportunity that could've been generated out of this play. As Harden is rising to shoot, Howard is barreling his way through the Mavs' would-be last line of defense, getting himself into position in case of a Harden miss. Harden does miss, and the remaining Mavericks are no match for Howard, who easily taps in the offensive rebound + a foul:
The Clippers have run this high-intensity defensive scheme since Doc Rivers came on board nearly two years ago, and it'll be interesting to see how it works against Houston's offensive approach. The Rockets shattered the NBA record for three-pointers attempted this season, and the Clippers were middle-of-the-road in terms of limiting them (opponents shot 34.9% from deep against LAC this season, tied for 15th in the league.
The full-strength Rockets are able to attack you in just about every way imaginable. They can kill you from deep with their relentless bombing style. They have skilled bigs (Howard, Josh Smith, Terrence Jones) that are able to create tons of high-percentage chances. And they have James Harden, who does just about everything imaginable on offense.
He's far from the quickest player out there, but he's smooth and wily enough to constantly keep defenders off-balance. If he catches you on your heels, it's basically over. He's the Roadrunner, in a way. A master of using defender's own tricks and plans against them. No player attempted more free throws this season than Harden's 824. Getting fouled is a unique skill, and Harden has it mastered.
However, the Clippers have historically done a great job in limiting him since he's been with the Rockets. In the four games this season, he averaged just 20 points on mediocre 35% shooting from the floor, including awful an awful 24% from three-point range. Without having to worry about contending with Howard, perhaps LAC's trapping style flustered Harden, throwing him off his game.
Anyway, Harden is as dangerous as anyone in the league as the ball-handler in a pick-and-roll situation. He's not officially a point guard, but he's the Rockets' point guard, for all intents and purposes. The following gif was a play that worked time and time again against the hapless Dallas defense. The oldest play in the book, just a simple high pick-and-roll with Harden going left around the screen and easily finding his rolling screen-setter, Clint Capela, for an easy jam:
Anyway, Harden is as dangerous as anyone in the league as the ball-handler in a pick-and-roll situation. He's not officially a point guard, but he's the Rockets' point guard, for all intents and purposes. The following gif was a play that worked time and time again against the hapless Dallas defense. The oldest play in the book, just a simple high pick-and-roll with Harden going left around the screen and easily finding his rolling screen-setter, Clint Capela, for an easy jam:
The aforementioned Clipper scheme will work hard to cut-off both Harden's driving and passing lanes, but it's easier said than done. Amar'e Stoudemire is playing abhorrent defense in that clip above, neither walling-off Harden's path to the rim, nor his easy toss to the big man. He's just kinda standing there, hopelessly watching. It won't be nearly as easy to execute with DeAndre Jordan's comically long arms coming out quickly and flailing around in Harden's face. The Clippers want the Rockets to have to resort to secondary offensive options, as opposed to letting Harden have his way.
We'll obviously have far more on this as the series goes on. Game one tips-off tonight at 6:30pm PT.
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