How Shot Selection Has Turned Blake Griffin's Season Around

Last season, we saw a transformation in Blake Griffin. Those of us that have actually watched him closely over the years already knew the "nothing but a dunker" narrative was bogus in the first place, but from year one to year three, his game really hadn't changed all that much. He was a guy that primarily did his damage on the inside by using his athleticism and strength to his advantage, but wasn't much of a threat from the perimeter.

After Chris Paul separated his shoulder in January, things changed. Griffin was suddenly tasked with the responsibility of carrying the Clippers' offense which was something he'd never really been asked to do in the past. A lot of us expected the team's performance to suffer without its floor general in uniform, but they didn't really miss a beat, as they went 12-6 during that span. In those 18 games, Griffin averaged nearly 28 points, eight rebounds and four assists per game. The juxtaposition between old Blake and new Blake was jarring. And quite welcome.

Blake Griffin
Photo Credit - Verse Photography/Flickr

Coming into this season even more was expected of Griffin, but he struggled out of the gate. He seemed more than content taking 17-foot jumpers as opposed to being the bullish force he'd always been in the past, and the team's performance suffered. It wasn't that the Clippers were losing every night (they weren't), it was more that they just looked bad. They were a team with championship dreams that didn't come close to passing the eye test. From the beginning of the season through November 17, the Clips had a record of just 5-4 and seemed to follow every good win with an inexplicable loss. It was frustrating, and it culminated with the 17th's 105-89 defeat at the hands of the shorthanded Chicago Bulls at STAPLES Center.

The Bulls have shown throughout the last couple of years that they can still be competitive without some of their key players, but the Clippers' performance that night was flat-out inexcusable. Chicago was playing without Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol, yet still won in Los Angeles by 16 points against a full-strength Clipper squad. This was the last game in California for the Clippers before setting out on a seven-game road trip, and things were looking pretty grim.

But then, the thing turned around. LAC wound up winning six of the seven games on that swing, and the one game they lost (in Memphis, Nov. 23) is still their most recent defeat. Paul has been phenomenal (as covered here), and the supporting cast has also seemingly found its groove (J.J. Redick, for one). But perhaps the biggest factor of all has been the resurgence of Griffin. Specifically, his shot selection.

Let's use NBA.com's shot charts and shot-tracking data as a guide. First, let's look at Griffin's shot chart through the season's first nine games, ending with the aforementioned Bulls game.

This shows an awful lot of shot attempts for Blake in the area in between the key and the three-point arc. Some players like LaMarcus Aldridge and Chris Paul thrive in this area, but a lot of people think taking lots of shots from this range is a fairly inefficient way to play. Griffin isn't a bad jump shooter, but taking so many of these shots reek of a lack of aggressiveness for him. He's also not good enough of a jump shooter to be relying this much on them. Rather than attacking the basket with regularity, he was settling for a lot of midrange Js.

After getting clubbed in the head by Kyle O'Quinn during the game against Orlando last week, (Clips TV guy) Mike Smith commented that perhaps part of the reason Blake has been more reticent to force his way to the bucket was because he's tired of taking so much punishment when he did so. It's hard to argue, given the amount of hard hits he seems to take whenever he forays into the lane. Perhaps Griffin's early-season reliance on the jump shot was a way of preserving his health during the early part of the season.

In the period of time before November 17th, Griffin attempted a total of 61 shots between 10-19 feet from the rim. The results were brutal, considering he converted just under 39% of these shots.

Now let's look at his chart from Nov. 17th-Dec. 12th, via NBA.com.

NBA.com's shooting stats tells us that in the next 12-game time frame, Blake has taken a total of 64 shots in the aforementioned 10-19 foot range. He's still taking them, but less frequently. He's also actually hitting a good amount of them, too (nearly 47%). Why the change? Well, he's started going to the basket again, and the results have been spectacular. 

Through the first nine-game sample, Griffin shot 60 times from less than five feet from the bucket. In the next 12, he's shot 91 times in the same range. We already knew he was a great finisher around the rim, and he's converting his attempts once he gets there at a great rate. The threat of the drive has forced defenders to give him more space if he catches the ball around the perimeter, which has surely helped his percentage on the jump shots, as well. If they try and guard him closely on the outside, he can just blow-by them and get himself an easy basket inside. If they respect the drive and give him space, he's punishing them by hitting the open shots. 

When the defender knows you're not going to try and beat him off-the-dribble, he can crowd your airspace and disrupt your shot. If he knows you're probably driving, he can hang off of you the way lots of guards do with Rajon Rondo. Griffin being a viable two-way threat is a beating to defend. 

This seems like something that may not be a realistic expectation until next season at the earliest, but it doesn't feel like it'll be long until the three-pointer is a real weapon in Griffin's game. As you can see above, he's hit four of the six he's attempted over the last 12 games, including the extremely lucky game-winner from the right wing against Phoenix on Monday night. It's not a part of his repertoire that we see him utilize very often at this point, but the potential is clearly there for him to expand his game even further in the future. 

The most dangerous offensive players in the league force their defenders to pick their poison even when there really is no correct solution. The way he's playing right now, Griffin is making them pay regardless of how they choose to try and play him. The results have transformed the Clippers back into one of the NBA's most prolific offenses.