CP3 for MVP?

Over the last couple of games, the Clippers' TV guys, Ralph Lawler and Mike Smith, have made it a point to tell us that Chris Paul is currently playing the best basketball of his career. High praise, indeed, considering he's a perennial MVP candidate and appears to be on the Hall of Fame track. However, despite playing in a huge market on a team with realistic championship aspirations, CP3 actually seems to have been flying under-the-radar a bit this season.
LAC got off to a slow start by their now-lofty standards, and perhaps that hurt him a bit. Quick-starting teams like the Warriors, Grizzlies and Raptors have captured the majority of the early-season headlines, with guys like Steph Curry, Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry earning some serious MVP hype along the way. MVP talk obviously sounds silly in December, but we have to pass the time somehow.

The Clippers are currently riding a six-game winning streak that has them at 13-5 now on the year, though they're still all the way down in the No. 7 spot in the ridiculous West. Fortunately, they're just three games behind the current conference-leading Warriors, and a fairly comfortable four games in front of ninth-place Denver and Sacramento. Barring some kind of catastrophic injury situation, the Clippers are making the playoffs.

But does Paul have a viable stake in the early MVP discussion? I mentioned earlier that Paul is seemingly in the running on a yearly basis, and perhaps part of the reason he's not garnering as much buzz so far in 2014 is because it's old hat by now. Paul, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are seemingly always among the top vote-getters for this thing, so when some new faces start breaking-through, perhaps we are naturally inclined to think they're the most deserving.

If you wanted to say that Curry is the MVP so far this season, I don't imagine you'd see too much resistance from those that follow this sort of thing. Sekou Smith of NBA.com lists Curry as his MVP runner-up to this point of the season behind Pelican superfreak Anthony Davis. You'll notice Blake Griffin is currently checking-in at No. 8 on the list, with Paul nowhere to be found. Hmm. Let's compare Curry's numbers to Paul's thus far.

As of today, both the Clippers (No. 3, 110p/100 poss.) and the Warriors (No. 5, 107.1) are in the top-five of the league in offensive efficiency. Not much of a surprise, given the offensive firepower on both teams, with Paul and Curry at the respective epicenters. Offensive Rating is the points scored per 100 possessions by a team with a certain player on the court. Paul currently leads all point guards in the league with an OffRtg of 115.9, while Curry ranks third (behind Lowry) at 112.7. Paul's slightly better, but they're quite comparable. Given how often they handle the ball and initiate offense, this number tends to be more important with PGs than other positions.

Net Rating is the discrepancy in the number of points scored for a team and points scored against a team when a player is on the court. You take the player's Offensive Rating and subtract the player's Defensive Rating (points scored against a team per 100 possessions with said player on the floor) and you have your Net Rating. You want a high OffRtg and a low DefRtg. Get it? I barely get it.

Anyway, Curry ranks No. 2 in the league in Net Rating with a discrepancy of 20.6. The NBA leader is Curry's backcourt mate, Klay Thompson. Curry isn't known as a great defender by any means, but the Warriors are currently the league's No. 1 defensive team. Curry's obviously not killing them on defense, but his Net Rating is certainly aided by his teammates. The Clips are the NBA's 10th-best defensive team (according to Defensive Efficiency), but CP3 is still 7th in Net Rating at 12.2. Being the league leader in OffRtg is helping him tremendously here.

Most would probably agree that there isn't a better shooter in the league today than Curry, and with good reason. He's prettay, prettay ridiculous. His true shooting percentage (which takes into account the value of free throws, two- and three-pointers) ranks third among guards at an absurd 64% (Kyle Korver is at 76%, which is both unbelievable and unsustainable). Paul is a very good shooter in his own right, though he isn't as recognized for being so. He's right behind Curry at 63.7%. Curry is hitting nearly 42% of his three-point attempts, while CP3 is knocking-down nearly 43%. However, Curry attempts more than twice as many per game.

Let's check out the shot charts, starting with threes.

The above chart is Curry's. Obviously, a high volume of his offense is generated off of threes, as he's taken 137 of them already, compared to just 61 for Paul. Not that there's anything wrong at all with that, of course. Look at all that green! Curry takes a ton of pull-up and off-the-dribble threes, which is part of what makes him such a thrilling watch. According to NBA.com, 26.9% of all of Curry's attempts are pull-up threes, which makes it even crazier that he's making over 44% of them. Overall, over 46% of all of Curry's attempts are of the pull-up variety. Let's look at Paul's chart. 

CP3 has the same three-point green areas as Curry does, though on far fewer attempts. He's also been a bit below average from three the right wing, which is, coincidentally, Curry's "weak" area, as well. The majority of Paul's overall shot attempts are pull-ups (over 64%), though just 17% are three-pointers. 

You'll notice that Curry has been more effective than Paul at finishing at the rim (66% shooting compared to 53%), though he's also nearly doubled Paul's attempts at the basket. Paul does most of his scoring at the top of the key or on the wings just outside the paint, which is an area Curry tends to avoid. 

This isn't some indictment on either player, of course. It's just a contrast of styles. Curry's game is predicated more on bombing-away from the perimeter and it works incredibly well for him. Paul is more patient and selective with his shots, which works incredibly well for him, as well. 

The aspect of the game Paul is most known for is obviously his passing and distributing. CP3 is currently leading the league in assist-to-turnover ratio at 6.33, which is well ahead of second-place Devin Harris, who checks-in at 4.10. Curry is a turnover machine, and despite averaging a good number of dimes, his ratio is just 2.41.

The "hockey assist" isn't a stat that has been traditionally tracked in basketball, but it's become relevant since the SportVU player tracking data became available to the public last year. A "hockey assist" is the pass leading to the assist. It's just another piece of information that paints a clearer picture of how teams are able to score. Paul averages three hockey (secondary) assists per game, which again puts him well ahead of the rest of the league. Curry is at 1.7, which ranks him No. 7.

The aesthetic appeal of Curry's game is a large part of what makes him so popular. Fancy handles and off-the-bounce three-pointers are exciting, especially in contrast to the more controlled, calculated style of Paul or the slow-paced, foul-drawing game of someone like James Harden.

I wouldn't say that Paul is the league's MVP at this point, but he's pretty clearly in the conversation, especially given how comparable he is to Curry in several areas. If Golden State goes on and continues to wreck the rest of the league, then obviously Curry is a perfectly deserving candidate and may well win the thing. But Paul is the force that drives the Clippers, and as long as he's healthy and doing his thing, CP3 need not be ignored.