Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Can the Clippers knock-off the unbeaten Warriors?

The L.A. Clippers are off to a 3-1 start despite being largely unimpressive in any of their games to this point. I suppose winning games in which you play poorly is the mark of a great team, but the Clippers have a long way to go before they can be considered "great".

The Golden State Warriors, on the other hand, have looked stellar during their 3-0 start to the year. Their point differential of +15.3 is the best mark in the league, and only GSW and the Houston Rockets have differentials above +10. The Warriors clubbed both the Kings and the Lakers before a very solid 95-90 triumph in Portland on Sunday night.

Though it's only been three games, Golden State already looks transformed under first-year head coach Steve Kerr. It seems as though there was a reason he was such a hot commodity this summer. We tend to think of the Warriors as an offensive juggernaut that plays no defense, but the opposite was the case for this bunch under their previous coach, Mark Jackson. The Warriors finished 12th in the league in offensive efficiency last season with a mark of 105.3. While that isn't terrible by any stretch, a team with the firepower the Warriors have on the roster should easily be a top-five unit.

They're still a work-in-progress under Kerr's new system, but they have passed the eye test thus far with excellent ball movement. Last year, Golden State ranked dead-last in the NBA in passes per game with just under 246. By comparison, Charlotte led the league a year ago with 337 a game. Pretty staggering difference. The Clippers ranked 13th with 306 per game, in case you were wondering.

This year, the Warriors are all the way up to 8th in passes per game with 319. With shooters like Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, and excellent passers like Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala, rapid ball movement on this team should open up a boatload of open looks. David Lee, another very good passer, hasn't played yet this season, but is expected to debut tonight against the Clippers.

The Clips will have their work cut out for them on the defensive end, for sure, but Golden State has been far more impressive on the other end of the floor this year. They're the top-ranked defense so far, allowing just under 88 points per 100 possessions. While that number is almost surely going to rise as the year progresses (league leaders tend to give up somewhere between 95-97 points per 100 for full seasons), they're still going to be beastly on defense.

Andrew Bogut, when healthy, is as good a rim protector as there is in the league, while guys like Iguodala, Thompson and Draymond Green can wreak havoc on opponents on the perimeter. Bogut missed the playoff series between these two teams last year, and him being healthy could've easily changed quite a bit in the outcome. The two weakest defenders among the Warrior starters are Lee and Curry, who coincidentally play the same positions as L.A.'s two best offensive players, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.

Steve Kerr said Wednesday morning that the bigger Thompson will likely draw the primary duties on Paul, as we saw plenty during the playoffs this past spring. If J.J. Redick struggles again to hit his open shots, expect to see a monster dosage of Jamal Crawford off-the-bench as the Clippers try to exploit Curry on defense.

The Warriors surprised many this summer by their refusal to include Thompson in a potential trade
Klay Thompson
Photo Credit - nikk_la/Flickr
that would've netted them Kevin Love, but his play so far this season has shown us why. Thompson currently leads the league in scoring, averaging 29.7 points per game. He's always been a superb shooter, and it appears as though the new, ball-zipping offense has opened up his game even more.

Going into the Warriors' barn and winning is never easy, and the Clippers will really be up against it tonight. The fact that this is one of the fastest-growing league-wide rivalries obviously adds a bit more spice to this matchup, as well. The Clippers lost both regular season showdowns in Oakland last season, though they were able to win one of the three games at ORACLE in the epic seven-game playoff series.

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